Price growth continues, but increased resistance emerging
IQVIA forecasts that the diabetes market will see positive price growth between 2018 and 2028 in all regions except Japan and AUNZ on an average implied price basis ($/patient-day). The average growth will be greatest in South America at 6.6%, likely driven by high inflation rates here, while North America will experience the slowest positive growth at 0.7%. Average prices are expected to decrease in Japan and AUNZ at a CAGR of -2.0% and -0.3%, respectively. Globally, the average price for diabetes treatments will grow at a CAGR of +0.2%.
Recent criticism over high insulin prices from media and public sources have led to increased pressure on insulin manufacturers, particularly in the USA. Biosimilar launches are beginning to combat this. For example, one company is launching an authorized biosimilar of their own insulin aspart product in January 2020, before loss of patent protection and at 50% of the originator brand price, to allow access to lower priced insulin to those that need it. This is accounted for in the IQVIA Forecast Link tool and contributes to the lower sales growth in the USA.
Diabetes is a significant area of innovation in new drug treatment, and the launch of novel and improved GLP-1 inhibitors drives some of the growth seen in the market. For example, there is particular interest in a new mechanism just entering clinical trials which involves encapsulating a human cell line that has been genetically engineered to produce and release insulin in response to the levels of blood sugar in the human body. The encapsulated cells are implanted in a diabetic patient where the aim is that they will function as a “bio-artificial pancreas” and will produce insulin when needed. This and other innovative options have the potential to transform the diabetes market and offer exciting opportunities for patients.
The Forecast Link online tool provides 10 year forecasts for an unrivalled breadth of disease and country coverage, and is updated quarterly. To find out more, please view the Forecast Link video
For individual disease data extracts please see Forecast Link: Disease.
Other blogs from IQVIA Forecast Link: Heart Disease Market Forecasts