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Developing IQVIA’s positions on key trends in the pharma and life sciences industries, with a focus on EMEA.
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EMEA Thought Leadership
Developing IQVIA’s positions on key trends in the pharma and life sciences industries, with a focus on EMEA.
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EMEA Thought Leadership
Developing IQVIA’s positions on key trends in the pharma and life sciences industries, with a focus on EMEA.
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Blog
U.S. Post COVID-19 Scenario Planning & Commercial Implications - Part 2
Second in a two-part series
Sep 18, 2020
Earlier this year, a multifunctional team of IQVIA senior leaders collaborated to develop four scenarios for how the U.S. healthcare landscape could evolve over the next 12-18 months – and how pharmaceutical and healthcare organizations can plan for each.
This post explores the final scenarios, “Journey Disrupted” and “Reputation Reborn,” along with their implications for the U.S. healthcare landscape. The first post in this two-part series explored the “Long Night” and “Too Many Moving Parts” scenarios.
It’s important to note that these scenarios have not been quantitatively modeled. They are not forecasts, nor are they predictions. They are meant to help pharmaceutical companies determine what could happen over the next 12-18 months in order to remain resilient and navigate this new post-pandemic environment as successfully and effectively as possible.
Scenario #3: Journey Disrupted
The third scenario is titled “Journey Disrupted.” Much like the “Too Many Moving Parts” scenario described in the previous post in this series, this is also a moderate-impact scenario characterized by the idea that some COVID-19 impact would continue for 18 months or more, but that management options exist for vulnerable populations.
A main distinction between the two scenarios is that “Journey Disrupted” envisions a coordinated, national-level healthcare policy. This coordinated response, along with effective deployment of new technologies, would be expected to hasten pandemic recovery by limiting surges in infection and accelerating reopening in some states outside of urban areas.
In this scenario, unemployment would hover around 7% for most of 2021, as some industries benefit from coordinated national response while others, like travel and hospitality, continue to reel from the effects of pandemic-based response. As in the “Too Many Moving Parts” scenario, consumer spend in 2021 would be on the rise, but likely still be down compared to 2019.
There would likely be a shift in the patient journey in this scenario, enabled by technology, as some patients would be prioritized for HCP visits while management for certain diseases would permanently move to telehealth. National hospital brands would develop telehealth capabilities, and patients with commercial and Medicare coverage would be able to access a national HCP network via telehealth and hybrid home health delivery. Digital transformation, along with rethinking customer engagement, would be key areas of focus when faced with this scenario.
Scenario #4: Reputation Reborn
The final scenario, “Reputation Reborn,” is characterized by the idea that the virus would subside or be under control by mid-2021 due to effective disease management and therapies. Economic recovery would quickly follow, with the recession ending by Q1 2021 and the economy returning to pre-COVID-19 levels within 1-2 years.
Vaccine development would be expected to act as a herald for sweeping regulatory reforms, triggering changes at the FDA with accelerated drug approval timelines and enhanced evidence requirements – think in terms of broader acceptance for real world evidence, non-traditional trials, and remote follow-ups.
In this scenario, after 12-18 months of disruption for providers, payers, and the pharmaceutical industry, organizations would settle into a new normal. We would expect continued sensitivity to HCP visits for vulnerable patients and greater reliance on telehealth, but most populations would likely return to pre-COVID-19 dynamics.
Pharma’s access to HCPs would be projected to gradually increase, but ultimately would be forecasted at roughly 20% more limited than pre-COVID-19 levels. For their part, HCPs would appreciate the scheduled nature of remote detailing and likely would no longer tolerate “drop-in” visits.
Scenarios Implications and Next Steps
Most U.S. pharma companies are already considering the strategies needed to succeed in the new business environment. Even in these relatively low-impact scenarios, there will be numerous opportunities to develop improved treatments, deliver care, and manage the economics of care with greater innovation.
To learn more about the implications of each scenario, and strategies to prioritize going forward, listen to our new podcast series, “U.S. Post COVID-19 Scenario Planning & Commercial Implications,” or contact us directly to discuss these scenarios and their implications for your business.
Podcast Series: U.S. Post COVID-19 Scenarios and Commercial Implications
Explore potential scenarios that the U.S. healthcare industry could face post COVID-19, and the strategies for where and how to compete in this evolving landscape.