Perspective on the economic potential of key pharma markets
The Global pharma market is projected to grow moderately at a CAGR of 4.7% over the next five years, with global sales reaching US$1.5 trillion in 2023.
While the Major Developed markets will remain the dominant contributor, the Pharmerging markets’ overall contribution to global sales growth will continue to rise to almost 35% over the forecast period.
At a regional level, North America’s share of the global market will remain worth over US$500 billion, but regions like South-East & East Asia, LATAM and the Middle East will emerge as key growth drivers owing to the improving accessibility of medicines and a robust economic outlook. Moreover, The Indian Sub-Continent will post the highest five-year CAGR, buoyed by a positive economic environment in the region, while Japan will be the only leading market to contribute negatively to global sales growth.
Key trends impacting growth across leading geographic regions
Improving standards of living, together with demographic and epidemiological trends, will drive demand for pharmaceuticals in all Pharmerging markets due to aging populations and a rapid rise in the incidence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Growing resources will be focused on the control and prevention of NCDs, especially CVS, cancer and diabetes.
New innovative products and emerging pipeline products will be a key driver of growth in the Major Developed pharmaceutical markets, where they have historically launched first. Specialty, orphan, biologic and oncology products will represent an increasing proportion of these drugs and consequently the price per patient is likely to edge progressively higher.
Continued economic growth will remain a key driver of pharmaceutical sales growth in the Indian Sub-Continent region over the forecast period, with GDP growth fastest in India and Bangladesh.
To cope with rising demand driven by demographic and epidemiological trends, governments of most South-East & East Asian countries will continue to seek expansion of their national health insurance schemes further driving up spending on healthcare in the region.
Aggressive drug pricing negotiations, ad-hoc price cuts and scaling back some public tenders are among the approaches used by several governments in the Middle East region to curb spending on pharmaceuticals.
To learn more about future market trends from IQVIA™ Market Prognosis Global, May 2019, click here.