Key Findings:

Exhibit 4: Historical and projected per capita use of medicine by region, 2015–2030

• When medicine use is adjusted for population, global medicine use growth is projected to be relatively low (1.9% CAGR) over the next five years, compared to 2.7% CAGR unadjusted for population, showing that global growth in medicine use is population driven.
• Per capita use of medicines varies widely by region, with Japan and Western Europe consistently exhibiting almost more than double the per capita use of most other regions.
• In the past five years, North America per capita use grew only 2.1% annually, and is projected to grow 0.9% annually through 2030.

Exhibit 15: Global medicine market size and growth including estimated COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic spending, 2016–2030

• Global medicine spending — the amount spent purchasing medicines from manufacturers before off-invoice discounts and rebates — is expected to exceed $2.6Tn by 2030 and increasing at a rate of 5–8% per year.
• Overall growth trends are expected to moderate after the disruptions from the pandemic in 2020 through 2023, and recent accelerations.
• Key drivers of growth through the forecast period include the contribution of new products and the impact of patent expiries, including the growing impact of biosimilars.

Exhibit 19: Global spending and growth, excluding COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics,constant $USBn, 2020–2030

• Global medicine spending growth is expected to slow over the next five years in absolute terms, driven mostly by the U.S., high GDP high growth developed countries, and the group of high growth and lower GDP countries referred to as Pharmerging countries.
• There are 15 countries with GDP per capita on a purchasing power parity basis exceeding $50,000 and with country-level pharmaceutical spending growing by more than $2Bn through 2030. The U.S. and 14 other countries account for 76% of global growth through 2030.
• Pharmerging markets – those with GDP per capita below $50K and with pharmaceutical growth above $2Bn through 2030 — will grow by $121Bn through 2030, slightly higher than the $118Bn in the past five years.

Exhibit 41: Global historic and forecast growth for top 20 therapy areas,constant US$, 2021–2030

• The biggest contributors to the growth in the next five years are oncology, immunology, diabetes, and obesity drugs. The growth is a result of a continuous influx of innovative products and in some cases offset by exclusivity losses.
• Most therapy areas are expected to grow more slowly in the next five years than in the past five.
• Lipid regulators, which had been declining steadily since leading product expiries more than a decade ago, are seeing a return to growth both from volume-driven growth of older generics and newer therapies targeting PCSK9 for some patients.

Exhibit 20: High growth developed and Pharmerging markets spending and growth,constant US$, 2015–2030

• There are 14 larger growth high GDP countries (excluding the U.S.) which are projected to grow by $155.1Bn through 2030, with 83% of the growth from the top eight of these countries.
• The drivers of spending growth in developed markets are predominately the adoption of novel drugs, with most global launches reaching these markets within a year.
• Spending in Pharmerging countries is expected to grow by $120.8Bn through 2030, with the top eight of these countries also driving 83% of growth.