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US Cold & Flu season slows in early Jan
Feb 10, 2023
After a rapid start, with record levels of flu incidences over the baseline 3-year average according to IQVIA’s FAN Flu/Cold/Respiratory Activity Notification Program in the fall and early winter, the cough, cold and flu (CCF) season in the world’s biggest OTC market has taken a dip.
In final week of 2022, the estimated level of total influenza cases in the US was 2.1-times the same level of the corresponding week of the baseline period – three-year average of 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, - further strengthening the likelihood that we are experiencing unusually high levels of incidence over the total season, however by mid-January a slow down had taken full effect with illnesses trending in line with the most recent 3-year seasonal average (see Exhibit 1).
Despite the tail off, the early season boom in incidences meant the Q4 levels were 42% up on what was an unusually mild 2021/2022 season.
Exhibit 1 – Estimated number of total US influenza cases 2012-2022 through the week ending 14 Jan 2022 (Source: IQVIA Consumer Health FAN; IQVIA Institute)
This drop off brings the US season in line to the one witnessed in Australia, which started fast but then dropped off rapidlyi.
Pediatric levels still elevated
The level of influenza incidence in children remains at elevated levels, but we are seeing this tail off, with incidences in the most recent week of 14 January down by 42% over the prior 2 weeks (see Exhibit 2). This comes after a Q4 which had trended 28.9% higher than the prior year Q4. As the season enters the later stages, pediatric incidences have now sharply dipped down to the 3-year season average.
Exhibit 2 – Estimated number of total US pediatric influenza cases 2012-2022 through the week ending 14 Jan 2022 (Source: IQVIA Consumer Health FAN; IQVIA Institute)
A rise is on the cards
However, over the next couple of weeks both adult and pediatric incidences should start to trend over the last two seasons and this trend should continue through February and March.
Regional illness levels continue to be very different across the US, so when looking ahead Brand Managers should evaluate where they should be investing their promotional dollars to get the best ROI as the CC&F season runs out.
Keep an eye out in the coming months for IQVIA Consumer Health’s round-up of the 2022/2023 cough, cold and flu season and preview to the upcoming US allergy season and for more information on IQVIA’s FAN Flu/Cold/Respiratory Activity Notification Program please contact: Chip Schaible - chip.schaible@iqvia.com
i IQVIA Consumer Health QuickView – 2022 US Cold and Flu Season Starts with a Bang
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