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Press Release

I360 : les Etats-Unis, nouvelle locomotive de la croissance mondiale

mai 02, 2018
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  • I360 : les Etats-Unis, nouvelle locomotive de la croissance mondiale

Retour vers le futur. Selon IQVIA, le marché mondial du médicament connaîtra une croissance comprise entre 3 et 6 % par an, pour atteindre 1 400 milliards de dollars en 2021. Ce mouvement de fond s’explique par un rebond des pays matures, et plus particulièrement des Etats-Unis. Leur domination sera totale, en volume et en valeur. Deux raisons sont à l’origine de ce retour en grâce : « Des niveaux de prix deux à trois plus élevés qu’en Europe, mais aussi de nouvelles vagues d’innovations, notamment en oncologie, qui auront une incidence positive sur les ventes. Les remises et les rabais confidentiels consentis par les firmes pharmaceutiques aux financeurs américains pourraient cependant nuancer cette prévision », commente Claude Le Pen, économiste de la santé et consultant chez IQVIA France. 

C’est l’un des principaux faits marquants de la dernière étude i360 : l’oncologie sera le principal contributeur de la croissance pharmaceutique mondiale, avec un taux de progression annuel de 6 à 9 % d’ici à 2021. « Les immunothérapies et les thérapies géniques seront des segments porteurs, d’autant qu’ils seront corrélés à des niveaux de prix potentiellement élevés, en particulier pour des traitements novateurs comme les CAR T-cells », souligne Claude Le Pen. La croissance du marché de l’oncologie sera notamment nourrie par une R&D fertile. Chiffres clés : près de 631 molécules uniques sont aujourd’hui en phase de développement avancé et pas moins de 544 laboratoires y consacrent une part conséquente de leurs investissements. Dans une moindre mesure, le retour de l’innovation impactera d’autres aires thérapeutiques telles que le diabète, les maladies auto-immunes, la douleur et le respiratoire. Toutes pathologies confondues, 40 à 45 nouvelles substances actives sont attendues chaque année… rien qu’aux Etats Unis.

Autre tendance à l’œuvre : les pays émergents marqueront légèrement le pas, après avoir longtemps dominé le classement international. Les "pharmerging" n’afficheront plus de taux de progression à deux chiffres, même si leur croissance restera encore dynamique (6 à 9 % par an). « Ces nations sont pratiquement toutes confrontées à des problématiques de financement en matière de protection sociale. Elles subissent les aléas d’une politique de régulation dont elles étaient jusqu’alors prémunies, y compris la Chine », analyse Claude Le Pen. Une contrainte manifeste en France, qui aura des répercussions directes sur ses perspectives de croissance, sensiblement inférieures à la plupart des pays comparables (1 à 4 % par an, contre 2 à 5 %). Véritable exception culturelle, la décroissance s’installera durablement au Japon (- 1 à - 2 % par an).

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